A pretty big cliff - Comment on the HMRC property transactions for October from Richard Pike at Phoebus Software

23 November 2021

Richard Pike, Phoebus Software sales and marketing director, says “Although these may be provisional figures from HMRC, it is difficult to imagine that the confirmed figures will show much difference to those we are seeing. We all knew that the market was going to slow, or even fall off a cliff, at some point. However, at an estimated 85,090 the non-seasonally adjusted figures for last month are the lowest in any October since 2012, which is a pretty big cliff.

“The one thing that may give the market a boost in the last few weeks of the year is the Bank of England’s reluctance to increase interest rates this side of Christmas, despite exceeding the predicted 4% inflation rate. While this is the case, and as many two and five-year fixes come to an end, there will be many looking to tie themselves into a new fixed-rate deal before the inevitable interest rate rise in the new year.”