HMRC property transaction data comment from LiveMore

21 October 2022

Simon Webb, managing director of capital markets and finance at LiveMore, said: “The demand for home buying is still strong but steady as evidenced by September’s housing transactions data remaining the same as the previous month.”

“The large annual drop of 32% (non-seasonal figures) and 37% (seasonal) is due to the ending of the stamp duty holiday last September when buyers surged to get their transactions over the line before the deadline closed.“

“We would expect the housing market to start cooling as mortgages rates are rising fast and the cost-of-living crisis puts a strain on people’s finances. To add to this financial pressure, the Bank of England is expected to raise the base rate again next week to try to curb inflation, with the market expecting an increase as much as 1%.”

Demand however, is still there, despite house prices continuing to rise, albeit at a slower growth rate than last year when the market was fuelled by the stamp duty holiday. The recently announced stamp duty change could also prop up the market for homes under £500,000. The bottom line is a shortage of houses for sale and not enough new property is being built fast enough to keep up with demand.”