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Rise in inflation adds grist to the mill for MPC - Comment on the MPC interest rate decision from Adam Oldfield at Phoebus Software

23 March 2023

Adam Oldfield, chief revenue officer at Phoebus Software, says “The will they, won’t they of the past few days has now been settled and for most it’s not the decision they were hoping for. Unfortunately, there are many factors weighing heavy on the global economy and recent events in the banking sector have added further to the turmoil. The unexpected rise in inflation announced yesterday, along with the half a per cent rate rise by the Fed, no doubt gave the committee grist to the mill.

“There is the suggestion that the rise in inflation last month was a temporary blip, and we should start to see the numbers coming down again soon. If this is the case, it’s hard to see that the Bank of England will have any cause to put the base rate up again in its next meeting. The problem is that we were just starting to see the housing market moving again, so the news of another increase could well give people further pause for thought.

“The only light is that we’ve seen lenders reducing rates in the last week, so perhaps they may not be as quick to put rates up if current swap rates are baked in. Nevertheless, for those on SVRs or trackers it’s a worrying time and lenders, I’m sure, will be getting their houses in order to ensure exposed borrowers get the support they need.”