Interesting, if volatile - Comment on the Bank of England money and credit figures from Adam Oldfield at Phoebus Software

29 September 2023

Adam Oldfield, chief revenue officer at Phoebus Software, says “With two sets of figures out this morning it’s interesting to see that the Bank of England’s figures show that both house purchase and remortgage numbers fell dramatically from July to August. Whereas the non-seasonally adjusted estimate for residential property transactions, from HMRC, in August shows an increase in activity. This volatility is indicative of everything we are seeing from lenders as they continue to reduce mortgage rates even as the Bank of England hold rates at their highest level for 22 years.

“We may well see a flurry of activity in October if would-be house hunters are tempted by reduced mortgage rates. However, we may not have seen the last of the base rate rises in 2023. All in all, we are looking at a pretty unsettled market and that picture is unlikely to change in the near future. Add to this the increase in the number of arrears and lenders are heading into even more troubled waters. The Mortgage Charter and Consumer Duty have put a huge onus of responsibility on lenders and now is the time to ensure that all systems are in place. This will allow other resources to be allocated where they are really needed to ensure exposed borrowers are given the help they need.”