Phoebus comment on today’s inflation rise

20 November 2024

Richard Pike, chief sales and marketing officer at Phoebus Software, said: “Although there remains a lot of unknowns in economic terms of fallout from the Budget and further base rate cuts, today’s inflation rise to 2.3% is not unexpected following a large drop in September.

"Moving forward, consumer pricing is expected to rise as businesses pass on the cost of increased national insurance commitments. But this in turn could result in businesses such as retailers cutting jobs in an already tough market. In terms of rate decreases, I expect we’ll be back to the BoE’s “let’s-wait-and-see” tactic with the message remaining one of cautious optimism – despite economic output remaining stable over the three months to September. The Chancellors rhetoric and policies over the parliamentary term doesn’t exactly provide confidence that anything will change in the next five years.

"I can’t see a Monetary Policy Committee interest rate vote for a rate cut coming in December unless they are really giving us all a big surprise Christmas present. However, into 2025, I still expect a lowering of rates. That said, we need to make consumers and borrowers understand that rates at 3.5 – 4 % will be the norm for their financial futures, so they may as well take products that are available today which in turn would stimulate all areas of the market which is good for all."